Direct Shipping of Wine Set To Explode To Huge Levels
A recent analysis of the direct wine shipping market concludes that American wineries must prepare to increase their direct shipping capabilities in order to accommodate what will be an unanticipated yet staggering increase in the direct sales and shipments of wine. The coming increase in direct shipped wine will, according to the recent analysis, marginalize most if not all sales via the three tier system.
The source of the new analysis of the direct shipping market is Joseph Cryan of New Jersey. Though not an economist nor an industry analyst, Cryan does have a degree in Business Administration from Belmont Abby College as well as experience as the Undersheriff of Union County, New Jersey. Cryan credentials are further burnished based on his current position as a New Jersey Assemblyman.
According to Cryan's recent analysis of the direct wine shipping market published at NJ.com, New Jersey can expect upwards of 10.7 million cases of wine to be shipped into the state when direct shipping of wine is allowed in New Jersey with future legislation. This figures amounts to roughly 100% of all wine now sold at retail in New Jersey.
Cryan notes in his article at NJ.com that this unprecedented and extraordinary transformation of the New Jersey wine marketplace and in consumer buying habits will, according to him, impact the "60,000 retail jobs in our state; if we were to allow direct shipping, those New Jersey jobs could all but disappear."
Cryan's conclusion that direct shipping of wine will replace all local retail sales of wine in New Jersey is sure to have an impact on the ongoing debate in the Garden State as to whether or not to allow New Jersey residents to have wine shipped to them from both out-of-state as well as in-state wineries. It's possible, however, that Cryan's study of the New Jersey wine marketplace and the conclusion that direct shipping of wine will entirely replace brick and mortar sales as well as displace 60,000 New Jersey jobs, could blunt the effort to open the state to direct shipping of wine if the state feels that losing 60,000 might be bad for the state's economy. On an unrelated matter, Cryan is the primary opponent in the NJ assembly of allowing wine to be shipped directly to NJ residents.
Perhaps the most extraordinary aspect of the Cryan analysis of the wine shipping marketplace is the differences it highlights between New Jersey consumers and consumers in every other state. In no other state where direct shipment of wine is allowed has this channel of commerce come to account for more than 3-5% of all retail sales, let alone 100% of all retail sales as Cryan suggests will be replaced by direct shipments in his state.
Though Cryan does not explain why New Jersey consumers will completely forgo purchasing any wine at brick and mortar outlets once direct shipping is allowed, it is easy to speculate why such a divergence in purchasing habits will occur in New Jersey:
1. New Jersey consumers, unlike those in all other states, are extraordinarily lazy and, given the opportunity, will choose not to leave their homes if their sloth can be accommodated by new trends in the marketplace
2. Speculation by some that skin-devouring bacteria is spread to humans through contact with wine bottles that have sat on New Jersey retail shelves gives NJ consumers good reason to resort to direct wine shipments as the alternative to losing their epidermis.
3. The extraordinary good looks of the FedEx and UPS drivers in New Jersey has so captivated consumers that the result is a wholesale change in their consumption and buying patterns, including the desire to do whatever is possible to get these drivers to arrive at their front doors.
While it is true, as some critics of Cryan's conclusions have noted, that he does not offer any explanation for his startling forecast of the demise of brick and mortar wine sales and the unprecedented increase in direct wine shipping, it should be reiterated that Cryan does have a degree in business administration and was the Undersheriff of Union County, New Jersey. In addition, Cryan has significant experience dealing with distribution issues. He was the co-sponsor of a bill in NJ that would make it a "petty disorderly persons offense" to deliver a newspaper to a private citizen that requested the paper not be delivered.
No matter what the reasons for the coming transformation in wine sales, one thing is clear. If Mr. Cryan's conclusion concerning direct shipping are born out, we should see the three-tier system become completely irrelevant as consumers stop all purchasing of wine in brick and mortar stores as his analysis implies.
Anyone seeking more background on Joseph Cryan's analysis and conclusion that direct shipment of wine into New Jersey will result in the end of brick and mortar sales of wine in that state and the demise of 60,000 jobs in the wine retail sector of the state can call Assemblyman Cryan at: (908) 624-0880