The Cycles of Change

Posted by Tom Wark on Dec 5, 2007

Eric Asimov at the NY Times has an interesting story in print that speculates on the coming increase in price of imported wines, due in large part to the weak dollar. What struck me about the article is how it is a perfect example of how to find a silver lining in what might be an unfortunate situation.

Eric points out, "Meanwhile, those who don’t want to pay higher prices might consider building up a supply now, or looking for values elsewhere." This in turn leads one of the folks Eric interviewed for the story, Josh Wesson, to make this statement:

“This is a sommelier’s dream. They won’t have to try
so hard to convince anybody to try picpoul. I would be going long on
picpoul.”

A perfect example that in nearly every situation that might look bad from one angle, from another perspective opportunity exists. In this case it is a matter of new opportunities no only for producers from lesser known areas in both the Old World and New World that don’t demand higher prices, but also for consumers, who will be introduced to wines that they may otherwise have ignored.

Of course, with imported wine prices on the rise, domestic wines should be able to make a run at somewhat higher market share. More opportunity.

This is of course how good money is made; by first looking at the opportunity any particular circumstance provides. In the wine industry one of the main focuses of opportunity seems to be related to technology. This makes the wine industry no different than most others. Working out exactly how wine lovers will use technology is the key to riches, isn’t it. I suspect they’ll do this mainly in the traditional way: by giving money to folks who provide access to wine and access to good prices on wine.

But then there are those who will provide the technology for others to satisfy wine lovers’ desires to get their hands on wine and wine at a good price. They seem to be the one’s in like to cash in.

With the exception of the constant advance of individual rights, I don’t think I’ve ever come across anything that is not cyclical in nature. If a slowdown in sales of imported wines occur or if a slow down in sales of all wines occur, it will not be permanent.